Stock Market Ups & Downs and why ..

There had been pretty consistent rumors that the wholesale price inflation would hit 5% before the midterms, The figures came out this morning and it was far worse, The wholesale inflation price inflation is 6.3% for the year,

My funds bounced back a decent amount today. I haven't heard much in the news tho...

AverageSue :
Do you do your own investing?
My traditional IRA is up 7.9% this year, my Roth 10.2%.
I've pretty much have had the same mutual funds in my traditional since 2022. If one is hot and another a dog, I might re-allocate some funds until things smooth out. My Roth is mostly ETFs. I keep a few core, and move the rest around quite frequently.
About 2006 I got tired of hearing.."Oh, you just have to wait things out, blah, blah, blah" and started reading up and investing on my own.

Increased inflation tends to dampen stocks, particularly the higher flying growth stocks. Stocks rebound and catch up after inflation levels off or goes down. It might not be immediate.Inflation is generally bad for bonds you currently hold, particularly if you intend to not hold them to maturity. It can make for higher bond yields if you are thinking of buying.The best thing you can do is diversify.I am 34/33/33 small, medium, large cap each.
90/10 equities to bonds to ... due to inflation.
70/30 Domestic vs Foreign.... the dollar is getting pummeled. That brings foreign earnings home with a boost.
80/20 developed world vs emerging market. China, Russia, and Taiwan are kept intentionally as low as possible.I am avoiding bonds for the time being. I think things can get worse.Almost everything is in index funds.I fully expect there to be a crash tied to AI. I have not figured out how to hedge that yet. Oh to have a crystal ball and know when to short them all. Some folks are going to get very rich when it pops.Educating yourself is important. Be patient... develop a plan and stick to it. Even if you plan to work with an advisor, knowing how stuff works is a good check toward knowing if your advisor acting in your best interests.

Stop watching your balance.... dumb decisions can result from panic. Check in maybe twice a year. Maybe once a quarter. Day to day, week on week watching will do you little good, especially if you are novice.

AntiRanchDrssng :
god no I don't do my own investing. I have a guy.
I'm up 14.4% YTD. The loss from yesterday was re-couped today.

Mahkno :
I like to figure out what is in the news that investors get anxious (or excited) about. Sometimes it's obvious, other times not. I'm hoping this thread goes as such:Market is up a lot today because of news x-y-z.
Market is mixed.... etc.

Here is a newsworthy item... the PPI soars to 6.3%The Producer Price Index is the inflation value for wholesale inputs. Those price increases have not yet been passed on to the consumer in the CPI (Consumer Price Index) which came in at 3.7% Almost all of that CPI increase was due to tariffs. The PPI is going to reflect surging diesel prices along with tariffs. It might be a month or two before those wholesale prices are passed to the consumer but they will be passed.Translation... inflation is going to get worse, much worse.The stock market continues to lumber along with mostly positive numbers... but that is driven mostly by a handful of stocks all tied to AI. AI continues to see money pour into their unsupported stock valuations despite the rising borrowing costs. Growth stocks suffer when inflation and interest rates soar. AI is still defying gravity, but for how long. The rest of the market is more or less in recession.

Energy stocks are also driving the market. Anything I have in my portfolio that has a decent percent of energy stocks is over 20% so far this year.

Mahkno :
At some point, what happens when the surging AI bubble bursts? A mini Stock market crash kind of like happened in 1987?

I think it will look more like the dot com bubble burst in 2000.